Resum
This paper describes the BBVA-ARIES, a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) for the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). In addition to providing EMU-wide growth and inflation forecasts, the model provides an assessment of the interactions between key EMU macroeconomic variables and external ones, such as world GDP or commodity prices. A comparison of the forecasts generated by the model and those of private analysts and public institutions reveals a very positive balance in favour of the model. For their part, the simulations allow us to assess the potential macroeconomic effects of macroeconomic developments in the EMU.
Idioma original | Anglès |
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Pàgines (de-a) | 411-426 |
Nombre de pàgines | 16 |
Revista | Journal of Forecasting |
Volum | 22 |
Número | 5 |
DOIs | |
Estat de la publicació | Publicada - d’ag. 2003 |
Publicat externament | Sí |