Who will be the adopters of 3G mobile computing devices? A probit estimation of mobile telecom diffusion

We characterize the role of the diffusion of information in the demand (adoption) of mobile telephones in the United States. Different strategies for identification of the parameters of the diffusion process are discussed. Using survey data from 1994 and 1998 and a probit model of mobile phone adoption, we estimate the rate of diffusion and bounds for the long-run market shares for specific socioeconomic market segments. Implications for the diffusion of 3G mobile computing devices are explored.