The China Syndrome Affects Banks: The Credit Supply Channel of Foreign Import Competition

Did the rise of Chinese import competition in the early 2000s affect banks' credit supply policies? Using bank-firm-level data on the universe of Spanish corporate loans, we find that banks rebalanced their loan portfolios away from firms facing Chinese import competition and towards profitable firms in non-exposed sectors. Banks supplied more credit also to the construction sector, albeit independently of firms' profitability. This was not due to banks' exposure to the housing boom. Rather, the geographical concentration of the manufacturing industries competing with China left local banks with few alternatives other than local construction firms to rebalance their loan portfolios.