Adolescent Development of Interethnic Attitudes Following a Social Intervention to Increase Intergroup Contact: The Moderating Role of Affective Forecasting

This longitudinal, quasi-experimental field study investigated affective forecasting as a moderator of positive intergroup contact effects among adolescents. We also examined a novel mediating mechanism that underlies this effect, namely accuracy of perceived outgroup willingness for intergroup contact. Three annual waves of survey data were used from 1,169 adolescents (Mage = 13.88 at Wave 1; 50% girls; 66% White British, 44% Asian British) whose schools were merged, in a unique intervention that resulted in one school where ethnic groups were evenly mixed (i.e., balanced school) and two White British majority schools (i.e., majority skewed schools). Results showed that positive intergroup contact and attitudes improved more in the balanced school than in the majority skewed schools. In all schools, change in adolescents’ positive intergroup contact predicted change in positive intergroup attitudes indirectly via (a) increased accuracy of perceived outgroup willingness for contact and (b) reduced intergroup anxiety. Indirect effects via accuracy of perceived contact willingness were stronger for adolescents who made more negative affective forecasts than for other adolescents. These moderated mediation effects were stronger in the balanced school than in the majority skewed schools.