TY - JOUR
T1 - Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios
AU - Tramblay, Yves
AU - Koutroulis, Aristeidis
AU - Samaniego, Luis
AU - Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.
AU - Volaire, Florence
AU - Boone, Aaron
AU - Le Page, Michel
AU - Llasat, Maria Carmen
AU - Albergel, Clement
AU - Burak, Selmin
AU - Cailleret, Maxime
AU - Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić
AU - Davi, Hendrik
AU - Dupuy, Jean Luc
AU - Greve, Peter
AU - Grillakis, Manolis
AU - Hanich, Lahoucine
AU - Jarlan, Lionel
AU - Martin-StPaul, Nicolas
AU - Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi
AU - Mouillot, Florent
AU - Pulido-Velazquez, David
AU - Quintana-Seguí, Pere
AU - Renard, Delphine
AU - Turco, Marco
AU - Türkeş, Murat
AU - Trigo, Ricardo
AU - Vidal, Jean Philippe
AU - Vilagrosa, Alberto
AU - Zribi, Mehrez
AU - Polcher, Jan
N1 - Funding Information:
This review paper is the result of the drought workshop that took place in Montpellier in April 2019 with 42 participants to discuss the current state of our knowledge of Mediterranean droughts; the workshop was organized by the IMPACTCC and HYMEX programs funded by INSU-MISTRALS. Fig. 2 was derived from datasets generated in the EDgE proof-of-concept project performed under a contract for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (http://edge.climate.copernicus.eu). ECMWF implements this service and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service on behalf of the European Commission. We acknowledge Rohini Kumar, Ming Pan, Niko Wanders and Stephan Thober for carry out the simulations for the models mHM, VIC, PCR-GLOBWB, and Noah-MP and the SMI estimations for whole Europe. We acknowledge the E-OBS dataset from the EU FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2020/11
Y1 - 2020/11
N2 - Droughts can have strong environmental and socio-economic impacts in the Mediterranean region, in particular for countries relying on rain-fed agricultural production, but also in areas in which irrigation plays an important role and in which natural vegetation has been modified or is subject to water stress. The purpose of this review is to provide an assessment of the complexity of the drought phenomenon in the Mediterranean region and present various perspectives on drought in the present and under future climate change scenarios. The projections of various model experiments on future climate change scenarios strongly agree on an increased frequency and severity of droughts in the Mediterranean basin. Nevertheless, given the complexity of the phenomenon, with different types of droughts and complex interrelated impacts, significant future uncertainties remain. For example, uncertainties are stronger for hydrological droughts than meteorological droughts due to human influences and water withdrawal. Significant drought impacts are expected in the future, in particular for developing countries in the southern and eastern parts of the Mediterranean basin. To improve the resilience and adaptive capacities of societies and environments faced with drought, we aim to provide an overview of the key issues in research on climate change impacts on droughts, with a specific focus on the Mediterranean region, in order to: i) redefine more meaningful drought metrics tailored to the Mediterranean context, ii) better take into account vegetation and its feedback on droughts, iii) improve the modelling and forecasting of drought events through remote sensing and land surface models, and iv) promote a more integrated vision of droughts taking into account both water availability and water use. This overview reflects the complexity of the problem and the need to combine scientific research with adaptation solutions to deal with drought in the future.
AB - Droughts can have strong environmental and socio-economic impacts in the Mediterranean region, in particular for countries relying on rain-fed agricultural production, but also in areas in which irrigation plays an important role and in which natural vegetation has been modified or is subject to water stress. The purpose of this review is to provide an assessment of the complexity of the drought phenomenon in the Mediterranean region and present various perspectives on drought in the present and under future climate change scenarios. The projections of various model experiments on future climate change scenarios strongly agree on an increased frequency and severity of droughts in the Mediterranean basin. Nevertheless, given the complexity of the phenomenon, with different types of droughts and complex interrelated impacts, significant future uncertainties remain. For example, uncertainties are stronger for hydrological droughts than meteorological droughts due to human influences and water withdrawal. Significant drought impacts are expected in the future, in particular for developing countries in the southern and eastern parts of the Mediterranean basin. To improve the resilience and adaptive capacities of societies and environments faced with drought, we aim to provide an overview of the key issues in research on climate change impacts on droughts, with a specific focus on the Mediterranean region, in order to: i) redefine more meaningful drought metrics tailored to the Mediterranean context, ii) better take into account vegetation and its feedback on droughts, iii) improve the modelling and forecasting of drought events through remote sensing and land surface models, and iv) promote a more integrated vision of droughts taking into account both water availability and water use. This overview reflects the complexity of the problem and the need to combine scientific research with adaptation solutions to deal with drought in the future.
KW - Adaptation
KW - Agricultural
KW - Climate change
KW - Droughts
KW - Hydrological
KW - Mediterranean
KW - Meteorological
KW - Vegetation
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85091760512&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348
DO - 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348
M3 - Review
AN - SCOPUS:85091760512
SN - 0012-8252
VL - 210
JO - Earth-Science Reviews
JF - Earth-Science Reviews
M1 - 103348
ER -
