Análisis de mortalidad de los pacientes atendidos por COVID-19 en el servicio de urgencias de un hospital de tercer nivel en la fase incial de la pandemia. Derivación de un modelo de riesgo para urgencias

Objective. To develop a risk model to predict 30-day mortality after emergency department treatment for COVID-19. Methods. Observational retrospective cohort study including 2511 patients with COVID-19 who came to our emergency department between March 1 and April 30, 2020. We analyzed variables with Kaplan Meier survival and Cox regression analyses. Results. All-cause mortality was 8% at 30 days. Independent variables associated with higher risk of mortality were age over 50 years, a Barthel index score less than 90, altered mental status, the ratio of arterial oxygen saturation to the fraction of inspired oxygen (SaO₂/FIO₂), abnormal lung sounds, platelet concentration less than 100 000/mm³, a C-reactive protein concentration of 5 mg/dL or higher, and a glomerular filtration rate less than 45 mL/min. Each independent predictor was assigned 1 point in the score except age, which was assigned 2 points. Risk was distributed in 3 levels: low risk (score of 4 points or less), intermediate risk (5 to 6 points), and high risk (7 points or above). Thirty-day risk of mortality was 1.7% for patients who scored in the low-risk category, 28.2% for patients with an intermediate risk score, and 67.3% for those with a high risk score. Conclusion. This mortality risk stratification tool for patients with COVID-19 could be useful for managing the course of disease and assigning health care resources in the emergency department.