TY - JOUR
T1 - Testing MOS precipitation downscaling for ENSEMBLES regional climate models over Spain
AU - Turco, M.
AU - Quintana-Seguí, P.
AU - Llasat, M. C.
AU - Herrera, S.
AU - Gutiérrez, J. M.
PY - 2011
Y1 - 2011
N2 - Model Output Statistics (MOS) has been recently proposed as an alternative to the standard perfect prognosis statistical downscaling approach for Regional Climate Model (RCM) outputs. In this case, the model output for the variable of interest (e.g. precipitation) is directly downscaled using observations. In this paper we test the performance of a MOS implementation of the popular analog methodology (referred to as MOS analog) applied to downscale daily precipitation outputs over Spain. To this aim, we consider the state-of-the-art ERA40-driven RCMs provided by the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project and the Spain02 gridded observations data set, using the common period 1961-2000. The MOS analog method improves the representation of the mean regimes, the annual cycle, the frequency and the extremes of precipitation for all RCMs, regardless of the region and the model reliability (including relatively low-performing models), while preserving the daily accuracy. The good performance of the method in this complex climatic region suggests its potential transferability to other regions. Furthermore, in order to test the robustness of the method in changing climate conditions, a cross-validation in driest or wettest years was performed. The method improves the RCM results in both cases, especially in the former.
AB - Model Output Statistics (MOS) has been recently proposed as an alternative to the standard perfect prognosis statistical downscaling approach for Regional Climate Model (RCM) outputs. In this case, the model output for the variable of interest (e.g. precipitation) is directly downscaled using observations. In this paper we test the performance of a MOS implementation of the popular analog methodology (referred to as MOS analog) applied to downscale daily precipitation outputs over Spain. To this aim, we consider the state-of-the-art ERA40-driven RCMs provided by the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project and the Spain02 gridded observations data set, using the common period 1961-2000. The MOS analog method improves the representation of the mean regimes, the annual cycle, the frequency and the extremes of precipitation for all RCMs, regardless of the region and the model reliability (including relatively low-performing models), while preserving the daily accuracy. The good performance of the method in this complex climatic region suggests its potential transferability to other regions. Furthermore, in order to test the robustness of the method in changing climate conditions, a cross-validation in driest or wettest years was performed. The method improves the RCM results in both cases, especially in the former.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=80053364762&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1029/2011JD016166
DO - 10.1029/2011JD016166
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:80053364762
SN - 0148-0227
VL - 116
JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
IS - 18
M1 - D18109
ER -