Stop product failure!: Applying fuzzy TOPSIS and AHP to define a framework to understand innovator group customers in FMC

Globally, 38,000 new products are launched every month in consumer packaged goods and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), and despite best efforts of the firms, around 60% of new products fail within first 3-years of their launches. Marketing Managers tend to hesitate on assigning exact reasons for these failures. The problem may be explored from customers' perspective on new product adoption/rejection. Analysing and identifying critical influencing factors for customers' adoption of innovation is an important topic in marketing research. The extant literature emphasizes on the importance of identifying key customer groups based on the time of adoption, and on the critical role of Innovator group customers (IG), earliest two groups of adopters, for success/failure of new product launches. Therefore, the goal of the study is to identify the most important factors affecting adoption decision making of IG customers in FMCG. From our previous study on systematic literature review, 108 variables were identified and grouped into four higher-level categories considering retailing sector in general. In this study, a pilot study to FMCG marketing managers was conducted to capture their knowledge on product lauches. From their answers, we computed the weight of the 4 categories by using a fuzzy version of analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Experts' opinions were measured and aggregated and the variables were ranked using Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS). These methods consider a set of linguistic terms represented by fuzzy descriptions to capture hesitancy and subjectiveness inherent in human decision making. Our study reveals the most crucial factors of customer adoption in FMCG and has managerial implications, such as addressing future product failures, promotion, customized offerings, and target marketing for the IG customers.