Exceso de peso en España: situación actual, proyecciones para 2030 y sobrecoste directo estimado para el Sistema Nacional de Salud

Introduction and objectives: Excess weight promotes the development of several chronic diseases and decreases quality of life. Its prevalence is increasing globally. Our aim was to estimate the trend in excess weight between 1987 and 2014 in Spanish adults, calculate cases of excess weight and its direct extra costs in 2006 and 2016, and project its trend to 2030. Methods: We selected 47 articles in a systematic literature search to determine the progression of the prevalence of overweight, nonmorbid obesity, and morbid obesity and average body mass index between 1987 and 2014. We projected the expected number of cases in 2006, 2016, and 2030 and the associated direct extra medical costs. Results: Between 1987 and 2014, the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and morbid obesity increased by 0.28%/y (P = .004), 0.50%/y (P < .001) and 0.030%/y (P = .006) in men, and by 0.10%/y (P = .123), 0.25%/y (P = .078), and 0.042%/y (P = .251) in women. The mean body mass index increased by 0.10 kg/m²/y in men (P < .001) and 0.26 kg/m²/y in women (significantly only between 1987 and 2002, P < .001). We estimated 23 500 000 patients with excess weight in 2016, generating 1.95 billion ⚬/y in direct extra medical costs. If the current trend continues, between 2016 and 2030, there will be 3 100 000 new cases of excess weight, leading to 3.0 billion ⚬/y of direct extra medical costs in 2030. Conclusions: Excess weight in Spanish adults has risen since the creation of population registries, generating direct extra medical costs that represent 2% of the 2016 health budget. If this trend continues, we expect 16% more cases in 2030 and 58% more direct extra medical costs.